Summary : Economic expansion is aging… more than stalling. That means slower and slower growth.
Primary risks for 2020
- US Elections
- Strategic conflict with China
- Market Consumer Moderation
Outlook for 2020
- World leaders need to collaborate more, or recessions separately will occur
- Fed reserve rates and bond market yield curves are risks to continued expansion and growth
- US and other developed markets will likely avoid recession – but financial markets will likely see very modest upswings
- Geo political problems could start seeing real expansion impacts
- Fed monetary policy will lose effectiveness
Recommended
- Continue being fully invested (ie don’t be afraid to keep investing in market)
- Start removing targeted risk out of portfolio
side note on market behavior
- Potential artificial growth in investment market as consumers get more access to fractional trading
- This is likely to have a drop in market first – followed by a spur of growth due to economic pressure on brokers to drum up investments (enacting fractional shares as this has been a trend lately) – due to loss of effectiveness from monetary policies
- Rates expected to have one more drop in Q1 2020 – with minimal impact
- Election not likely to have material impact on market